Republican presidential nominee Donald J. Trump’s platform has consisted largely with one key factor within the U.S. economy: the trade deficit. The primary reason why this has been a focal point throughout his historical run for office is because his voter base is primarily seen throughout the rust belt and Midwest, which in most cases have seen significant economic hurdles.
The pool of stocks that I ended up fishing in is not high-yielding “recovery stocks;” they seem too risky for this fund. This ruled out banks such as HSBC, oil companies, or the fund management houses. Instead, I was looking for a steady dividend flow, which is not obviously at risk. Quarterly instead of half-yearly dividends is a bonus but not essential.
Most of we active equity investors have a need for tactical or strategic cash holdings, monies which we expect to place in the market when we are more confident of pricing or prospects. For some, part of this can be a long-term holding, held in reserve in the event of a crash–the buying opportunity of a lifetime–while the remainder may swell or shrink over time. In reality, however, we probably end up holding more cash, on average, than is good for us.
Finally! It’s happened. The SPX has blasted through that wall of worry and risen through last May’s all-time high. Investors are willing to pay more for stocks even as earnings and growth cascade downward. Chart-chasers pile into risk assets on the fear of missing out. If one were to take a step back from the outright denial, they would see a market that is overvalued and overhyped.
Yes, the English outside of London and good parts of Wales voted in favor of a Brexit. In memoriam of the colonial trade economy and the former industrial power distribution, one asks only this question: What to do now?
Unless you’ve been living under a rock since Thursday, you’ll know that Britain has voted to leave the EU. Predictably, this decision has prompted chaos in the markets. In the two trading days following the vote, the FTSE 100 was down 5.6% and the more U.K.-focused FTSE 250 had slumped 13.7%. Three sectors in particular have been hit hard: banking, house-builders and airlines. Here, we will look through some of the key challenges the sectors face and what the prospects are.
As with all scenarios, half of the tactics is to be correctly positioned, with flexibility, prior to the event. We are already seeing European, and not just the U.K., markets gradually deteriorating in advance of the vote.
“Believe you can and you’re halfway there.” – Theodore Roosevelt
I learnt earlier this week that the UK’s most popular newspaper The Sun has correctly called the country’s general election outcome – via its choice of which political party to give its editorial nod too – for over 40 years. I am not sure whether this also applies to referendums but their stamp of approval for ‘Leave’ as opposed to ‘Stay’ is a weighty call.
First off full disclosure: I have a Belgian wife, two half-Belgian children and travel regularly to Brussels to visit friends and family. I was born in Paris to British parents who, perhaps ahead of their time, spent several years living and working on the continent. I speak two European languages (badly to passably) and enjoy the freedom of travelling through Europe unencumbered by national borders. I was virtually born a Europhile, as good as married into the EU and was in the ‘Remain’ camp before there even was such a thing.